Netanyahu finds himself caught in a difficult political position as he campaigns for re-election ahead of an October 27 vote. He must balance demands from far-right ministers angered by concessions in Gaza against pressure from Trump, his key military backer, who wants progress toward ending the conflict through a new 15-point peace plan.

Israel has scaled back attacks in Gaza since Monday, when Nikolay Mladenov, the Gaza envoy for Trump’s Board of Peace that oversees the Gaza ceasefire, met with Netanyahu. A source familiar with Israel’s position confirmed the military agreed to act only against immediate threats and will no longer carry out targeted assassinations, which had been conducted on a near-daily basis.

Core Dispute Over Trump’s Peace Framework

Trump announced last month that there had been a breakthrough in his plan to end the war, with both Israel and Hamas agreeing to key provisions. The framework calls for Israeli forces to withdraw as Hamas disarms, with an International Stabilization Force working alongside a new Palestinian police force to secure the enclave.

Complications have swiftly emerged over the sequencing of these steps. Israel insists that Israeli troops in Gaza will not move before Hamas disarms, while Hamas has demanded that Israel halt attacks before it begins implementing the agreement’s provisions on its arms.

“Israel does not accept the 15-point document,” Netanyahu said at the start of a meeting with cabinet ministers, adding that the military “will not carry out any withdrawal until Hamas is disarmed … it means heavy weaponry, lighter weaponry, all weaponry.”

Netanyahu emphasized that Israel demands genuine disarmament, not what he called “fictitious disarmament.” He noted that Israel remains in talks with the United States on the plan, suggesting negotiations continue despite his public rejection.

Political Pressures Complicate Netanyahu’s Position

The timing of Netanyahu’s statements reflects the complex political dynamics he faces in the run-up to elections. His right-wing coalition partners have expressed anger over any perceived concessions in Gaza, threatening the stability of his government. At the same time, Trump has made clear his expectation that Israel will cooperate with his peace initiative.

The de facto ceasefire that has taken hold since Monday demonstrates the practical impact of U.S. pressure on Israeli military operations. While Netanyahu publicly rejects the peace plan’s framework, his military has already adjusted its operational posture in response to Trump’s demands.

This gap between public rhetoric and operational reality highlights the delicate balancing act Netanyahu must perform. He needs to maintain support from his right-wing base while preserving the crucial military and diplomatic relationship with the United States.

Regional Implications and International Response

The stalemate over Trump’s peace plan has broader implications for regional stability. The International Stabilization Force envisioned in the agreement cannot deploy until both sides agree on implementation sequencing. Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains precarious despite the reduction in military operations.

The involvement of Trump’s Board of Peace and special envoys like Mladenov represents a significant investment of U.S. diplomatic capital in resolving the conflict. However, the fundamental disagreement between Israel and Hamas over sequencing threatens to derail progress despite this high-level engagement.

International observers note that both parties appear willing to engage with the peace framework in principle but remain deeply divided on implementation details. The question of weapons disarmament versus troop withdrawal represents a classic security dilemma, with neither side willing to take the first step without guarantees.

Path Forward Remains Uncertain

As Netanyahu enters the final months of his election campaign, the pressure to demonstrate both strength and diplomatic progress will only intensify. His public rejection of the 15-point plan may satisfy domestic political demands, but it complicates his relationship with Trump at a critical moment.

The continued U.S.-Israel negotiations suggest that diplomatic channels remain open despite the public disagreement. Trump’s administration has demonstrated willingness to apply pressure through military channels while maintaining dialogue at the political level. Whether this approach can bridge the gap between Israeli security demands and Palestinian expectations remains to be seen.

The practical ceasefire that has emerged since Mladenov’s visit provides a window of opportunity for further negotiations. However, without resolution of the sequencing dispute, the risk remains that violence could resume, particularly if domestic political pressures push Netanyahu toward a harder line before the October 27 election.

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