The current secretary general, António Guterres, has earned recognition as the most forthright leader on climate issues in the organization’s history. He has publicly called fossil fuel companies “the godfathers of climate chaos” and warned governments they are rushing down a “highway to hell” by failing to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate experts credit Guterres’s repeated championing of the crisis’s urgency with significant global impacts. His willingness to confront vested interests has forced governments to address their policy failures and kept alive the aims of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, despite the rising tide of populism and disinformation that threatens international cooperation on environmental issues.

Guterres must step down at the end of his second five-year term on December 31, and the selection of his replacement has become one of the top concerns among the scores of heads of government attending this week’s gathering. The decision will shape the UN’s approach to climate action at a critical juncture for the planet.

Controversial Candidates Raise Red Flags

Many of Guterres’s most likely successors have shown less enthusiasm for tackling the climate crisis, despite rising alarm at its impacts worldwide. Experts speaking with The Guardian warned that some candidates could prove “disastrous” for climate efforts, yet these individuals could enjoy support from influential countries including the United States and its allies.

Three candidates in particular have triggered concerns among climate advocates. Rafael Grossi, an Argentinian diplomat who heads the International Atomic Energy Agency, tops the list of worrying potential successors. Multiple insiders and experts told reporters that Grossi was “trying to be a friend of Donald Trump” and maintains close links with Argentina’s populist president, Javier Milei, a known climate denier.

“Grossi is not a climate denier himself, but those links could lead him to downplay climate,” said one close observer, who could not be named.

The second concerning candidate is Macky Sall, the former president of Senegal. Observers see Sall as a potential champion of gas in Africa as a “transitional fuel,” which many African leaders want to exploit despite concerns about fossil fuel emissions. His presidency could create conflicts between continental energy interests and global climate commitments.

African Energy Politics Complicate Selection

“I wonder how far he would be willing to push [climate action] when it conflicts with African [fossil fuel] energy interests,” the observer said.

The third candidate raising eyebrows is Olara Otunnu, a Ugandan former presidential candidate who has served as UN undersecretary general for children and armed conflict. Otunnu may face national pressure regarding the politics of African gas and oil exploration, as Uganda has discovered large oil and gas deposits that it plans to exploit in coming years.

“He’s a big question mark,” said another expert. “Given the fossil fuel politics of Uganda, would he make cli[mate action a priority]?”

The succession question emerges at a moment when the climate crisis continues to intensify globally. A new report projects that a huge El Niño event could cause 450,000 deaths in the next six months, with impacts spanning from Nigeria to the United States. This prediction comes on top of existing impacts of the climate crisis that are already affecting communities worldwide.

Guterres’s Climate Legacy at Stake

In an interview before his final general assembly, Guterres spoke about why he put climate at the center of his UN tenure. The outgoing leader emphasized what he sees as his duty to tell the truth about the climate crisis, capitalism, and reasons to maintain hope despite mounting challenges. His approach has earned praise from climate advocates but also criticism from fossil fuel interests and some political leaders.

Climate activists and experts argue that the next secretary general must maintain this level of urgency and commitment. The UN plays a crucial coordinating role in international climate negotiations and sets the tone for global action through its pronouncements and diplomatic efforts. Any weakening of this stance could undermine efforts to limit global temperature rise and transition away from fossil fuels.

Supporters of strong climate action are urging global leaders to pursue a clear goal: clean energy for all by 2030. They point to solar power as one great ally in the climate fight, noting that high-mileage electric cars are proving more reliable than petrol ones, according to a recent study. These technological advances offer hope that rapid decarbonization remains achievable with proper leadership.

Geopolitical Pressures Shape Climate Future

The succession decision will unfold against a complex geopolitical backdrop. Regional interests, particularly regarding African energy development and the role of natural gas as a transitional fuel, will weigh heavily on the selection process. Some developing nations argue they should have the right to exploit fossil fuel resources for economic development, even as climate science demands rapid global emissions reductions.

The influence of major powers will also shape the outcome. The relationship between candidates and leaders like Donald Trump, who has questioned climate science and withdrawn the United States from international climate agreements in the past, could prove decisive. Countries with significant fossil fuel interests may push for a secretary general less willing to confront the industry aggressively.

As the UN general assembly proceeds this week, climate advocates face an uncertain future. The organization has served as a critical platform for climate action under Guterres’s leadership, hosting major conferences and brokering international agreements. Whether his successor will maintain this focus or allow climate priorities to slip remains one of the most consequential questions facing the international community. The answer will significantly shape humanity’s response to what many scientists consider the defining challenge of our era.

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