ESPN released its latest College Football Playoff projections, naming 31 teams with realistic shots at reaching the 12-team field this season. The list features notable inclusions from both the Group of 6 conferences and major Power conferences, highlighting the expanded playoff format’s impact on competitive balance across college football. UNLV and Tennessee stand out as intriguing long-shot candidates facing vastly different paths to playoff qualification.

The expanded playoff structure awards automatic berths to the top-ranked Group of 6 team, creating unprecedented opportunities for programs outside the traditional power conferences. Last season demonstrated this potential when both Tulane and James Madison secured playoff spots, validating the new format’s promise of broader access. This year’s projections suggest similar possibilities exist for determined underdogs willing to navigate challenging regular-season schedules.

UNLV Represents Group of 6 Hope Alongside Boise State

UNLV earned the No. 25 spot in ESPN’s rankings, becoming one of just two Group of 6 teams included in the analysis alongside Boise State at No. 28. ESPN’s advanced analytics assign the Rebels an 8.6 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, while Boise State sits at 11 percent. The projection appears conservative considering the automatic Group of 6 berth ensures at least one non-power team reaches the playoff.

The Mountain West Conference did not release a preseason poll, but UNLV and New Mexico emerge as consensus conference favorites heading into the season. UNLV carries momentum from reaching three straight Mountain West title games, though the Rebels lost each championship matchup to Boise State, which has since departed for the Pac-12. This conference realignment removes UNLV’s most dominant obstacle from their path to a Mountain West championship and potential playoff berth.

Other Mountain West teams received modest playoff odds from ESPN’s Football Power Index, with Hawaii at 3.5 percent, New Mexico at 2.9 percent, and Air Force at 1.5 percent. No other conference member reaches the 1 percent threshold, underscoring UNLV’s status as the Group of 6’s second-best playoff hope behind only Boise State according to ESPN’s projections.

Tennessee Faces Brutal SEC Gauntlet Despite Playoff Odds

Tennessee landed at No. 26 in ESPN’s rankings, just behind UNLV, with ESPN analytics granting the Volunteers a 20 percent chance to reach the playoff. ESPN’s Heather Dinich expressed skepticism about Tennessee’s prospects despite this relatively generous projection, noting the team won just four league games last season and appears positioned for a middle-of-the-pack SEC finish at best.

“The computers give the Vols the 19th-best chance to make the CFP, and that is extremely generous for a team that won four league games last year and seems positioned for a middle-of-the-pack finish at best,” Dinich wrote.

The Volunteers face massive roster turnover with a new freshman quarterback and wholesale changes on the defensive side of the ball. Their schedule includes murderous matchups against Texas, Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M, creating legitimate doubts about Tennessee’s ability to accumulate enough quality wins. However, head coach Josh Heupel has established a track record of offensive success regardless of quarterback experience, suggesting the offense may not fall off dramatically despite the personnel changes.

Schedule Strength Could Save Tennessee’s Playoff Dreams

Dinich identified schedule strength as Tennessee’s primary selling point with selection committee members. The Volunteers face the 14th-toughest schedule in the country according to ESPN Analytics, which could provide critical margin for error when the committee evaluates résumés. This strength of schedule offers Tennessee more grace in committee deliberations, as losses to elite opponents like Texas and Alabama won’t automatically eliminate the Volunteers if they secure impressive wins elsewhere.

“With that comes a little more grace in the committee meeting room,” Dinich wrote. “The Vols won’t necessarily be eliminated because of losses to Texas and Alabama because they can sway the committee members with wins against Texas A&M and LSU. At no point in the second half of the season – when the committee is watching most closely – does Tennessee have back-to-back home games.”

The lack of consecutive home games during the committee’s most intensive evaluation period represents both challenge and opportunity. Tennessee must prove its mettle in hostile road environments, a factor the committee values when comparing similar résumés. Seven SEC teams rank ahead of Tennessee in ESPN’s projections: Alabama (17), Oklahoma (12), LSU (10), Texas A&M (9), Ole Miss (8), Georgia (5), and Texas (1). The Volunteers will face four of those teams directly, along with South Carolina, which checked in at No. 30.

Path Forward Requires Taking Care of Business

Tennessee’s playoff calculus appears straightforward on paper though difficult in execution. The Volunteers must win their expected games against Furman, at Georgia Tech, Kennesaw State, Auburn, at Arkansas, at South Carolina, Kentucky, and at Vanderbilt before attempting to split their four matchups against top-tier SEC competition. A 2-2 record against the conference’s elite would likely position Tennessee favorably for playoff consideration, particularly if the wins come against highly-ranked opponents.

The defensive improvement trajectory will ultimately determine Tennessee’s ceiling this season. Last year’s defensive struggles limited the Volunteers despite explosive offensive performances, creating a clear area requiring major improvement. If Tennessee achieves even average defensive performance – representing a significant jump from last season – the combination with Heupel’s proven offensive system could generate enough wins to justify the analytics’ cautious optimism about the Volunteers’ playoff chances.

The post UNLV and Tennessee Emerge as Long-Shot College Football Playoff Contenders in ESPN’s Latest Power Rankings appeared first on The Daily Update.

The Big Ten captured its third straight crown in January, deepening the ground the SEC has lost in college football’s most important race. This fall represents one of the more important seasons in SEC history, as the conference expands to a nine-game schedule while trying to reclaim national relevance. Championships drive some programs, while others simply want bowl eligibility or need to evaluate coaches on increasingly hot seats. Even traditional blue bloods face pressure to correct course after several misfires in previous hiring cycles.

Alabama Searches for Offensive Identity Under DeBoer

Kalen DeBoer enters his third season at Alabama still struggling to establish a clear offensive identity. Smashmouth football was a staple under Nick Saban, but the Crimson Tide’s ground game collapsed last season to rank 123rd nationally with just 104.1 rushing yards per game. The offseason brought another blow when heralded NC State running back Hollywood Smothers flipped his commitment to Texas instead of joining the Tide’s backfield rebuild.

Alabama’s College Football Playoff exit exposed deeper concerns about physical play. A more physical Indiana team bounced the Tide from championship contention, raising questions about the program’s toughness under its new leadership. DeBoer acknowledged the challenge in May but urged patience with the transformation process.

“Balance is a great word — and just perspective,” DeBoer said in May. “It doesn’t happen overnight, and there are a lot of things when it comes to physical play that we do extremely well.”

DeBoer pointed to tackling as one area where Alabama excels, noting the Tide improved to 13th nationally in total defense last season. The defensive progress offers some comfort, but offensive balance remains elusive for a program accustomed to dominating both sides of the ball.

Arkansas Seeks Fresh Start After Painful Season

The Razorbacks endured flashbacks to the Chad Morris era during a brutal 10-game losing streak last season that devastated Fayetteville. The program moved decisively, parting ways with Sam Pittman and Bobby Petrino. Then, they hired Ryan Silverfield after his successful stint at Memphis, where he actually defeated the Hogs last season.

The influx of transfers gives the roster a practically new look, with many of these players having produced at Group of Six schools. Quarterback AJ Hill leads six players who followed Silverfield from Memphis. Fans are hungry for a return to eight-win seasons, but patience will be tested as Silverfield installs his system with a largely unfamiliar roster.

Georgia’s Receiver Corps Faces Scrutiny Again

The Bulldogs have struggled to find consistent answers at receiver for several years now. Georgia took a handful of high-profile transfers during that timeframe, experiencing some success but never achieving the elite production needed to maximize the offense. Starting quarterback Gunner Stockton returns, creating potential for a major offensive leap forward if the pass-catchers can deliver.

The Bulldogs might only advance as far as their receiving corps carries them. Someone has to step up and become an elite threat to force defenses to adjust on every down. Without a dominant receiver commanding defensive attention, Georgia’s offense risks falling short of championship standards despite having talent elsewhere on the roster.

Texas Offensive Line Must Prove Portal Investments Worthwhile

The Longhorns’ lack of a run game, primarily prompted by shaky run blocking by the offensive line, put tremendous pressure on quarterback Arch Manning last year. Texas spent heavily in the transfer portal to enhance both the backfield and the offensive line itself, gambling that elite talent acquisitions could solve persistent blocking problems.

Texas landed aggressive transfers on the line who will join returning starters Trevor Goosby and Connor Robertson to anchor the unit. The question remains whether these additions will be enough to help Texas push forward as a well-rounded offense. A balanced attack could unlock Manning’s full potential and position the Longhorns as legitimate national championship contenders.

Ole Miss Tests Golding’s Long-Term Leadership

Pete Golding deserves credit for keeping the Rebels rolling after Lane Kiffin departed for the LSU job. Ole Miss really didn’t miss a beat during the transition, maintaining competitive momentum through the coaching change. Golding rallied the program during a successful postseason run that validated his interim leadership.

However, doing it with a postseason rallying cry for a few weeks is very different than doing it after the dust has settled and you have a full season to prove sustained excellence. The good news is Ole Miss has many key parts back, providing continuity that should ease the transition. Golding must now demonstrate he can build on that momentum across a complete season rather than just managing a brief caretaker period.

Ohio State and Texas Face Dangerous Trap Games

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy identified potential trap games for top College Football Playoff contenders. The former Alabama quarterback warned that the Buckeyes face danger when they travel to Iowa City on October 3. Ohio State has dominated Iowa recently, but Kinnick Stadium presents unique challenges, especially at night.

“Going to Kinnick Stadium, potentially at night, were ranked teams don’t get beaten as much as slowly digested,” McElroy said. “Iowa’s entire model is to turn it into a rock fight, make it 13-10, and hopefully it’s muddy. And if you’re walking in looking past it, you could very easily become this year’s cautionary tale.”

Texas faces similar danger when the Longhorns travel to Missouri on November 7. The road environment and timing on the schedule create conditions where ranked teams can stumble if they overlook their opponent. Preseason Top 10 Alabama’s season-opening loss at unranked Florida State last season serves as a fresh reminder that no game should be taken lightly, regardless of opponent or expectations.

The post SEC Media Days 2026: Five Burning Questions as Conference Chases Big Ten Supremacy appeared first on The Daily Update.