United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby secretly pitched a blockbuster merger with rival American Airlines during a White House meeting with President Trump. Reuters first reported the story, citing two unnamed sources familiar with the encounter. The meeting reportedly took place in late February. A person close to the administration expressed skepticism about the idea.

United Airlines declined to comment on the report. American Airlines and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Shares in American Airlines surged nearly 9.3% following the report. Shares in United also climbed roughly 3.9% during early trading in New York.

A Deal That Would Reshape Global Aviation

United and American already rank as the world’s two biggest airlines by available capacity. Aviation data group OAG confirmed this ranking based on international flight data from last year. A merger between the two carriers would mark the largest consolidation in the airline industry in at least a decade. The deal would reshape one of the most strategically important sectors in the global economy.

The US domestic airline market currently features four dominant carriers. United, American, Delta, and Southwest collectively control 74% of passenger capacity in the United States. A combined United-American entity would command more than one-third of all US domestic traffic. This level of market concentration would almost certainly trigger intense regulatory scrutiny.

United controls approximately 16.7% of the US domestic market. American holds roughly 17.4%. Together, these two carriers would hold a combined market share exceeding 34%. Experts say this figure alone makes regulatory approval extremely difficult.

Kirby’s Personal Motivation Adds Intrigue

The proposal carries a striking personal dimension for Scott Kirby. American Airlines previously fired Kirby from his role as company president. Kirby later joined United and built it into a powerhouse that consistently outperformed his former employer. Acquiring American Airlines would represent a dramatic professional reversal for him.

Strategically, the merger would also offer United significant network benefits. It would strengthen United’s presence in New York by combining assets at Newark with American’s broader New York footprint. The deal would also make United the dominant player in Los Angeles. Additionally, it would hand United a major hub in the southeastern United States.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy had previously hinted at the possibility of airline mergers. He noted that President Trump enjoys seeing “big deals happen.” Many industry observers initially assumed this referred to a possible acquisition of JetBlue. The United-American pitch suggests the ambitions involved were far larger.

Antitrust Obstacles Loom Large

Legal experts and competition analysts agree the merger would face monumental regulatory hurdles. William Kovacic, a former Federal Trade Commission chair and now a professor at George Washington University Law School, called the idea “extremely far fetched.” He said the two airlines compete “head to head in so many markets.” He added that they serve as “the principal carriers” across a wide variety of routes.

Under traditional antitrust analysis, regulators would almost certainly block such a deal. The combined carrier’s position in key markets like Chicago and Los Angeles would raise major red flags. Authorities would view New York as a problem market as well, given the proximity of Newark and other New York-area airports.

One possible solution could involve spinning off assets in the most concentrated markets. Industry analysts drew parallels to the proposed “DC Air” arrangement from an earlier United and US Airways merger attempt. That deal ultimately collapsed amid competition concerns. Secretary Duffy himself acknowledged the possibility of carving out assets to address competition worries.

State and Private Legal Challenges Could Follow

Federal antitrust clearance would not end the legal battle. Any individual US state could sue to block the merger under the Clayton Act on behalf of its residents. Competitors, customers, suppliers, and unions could also file independent legal challenges. Each group would need to demonstrate standing and prove antitrust injury to pursue such a case.

Recent airline merger history underlines just how difficult regulatory approval has become. In 2024, the Biden-era Justice Department successfully challenged JetBlue’s planned takeover of Spirit Airlines. A federal judge ultimately blocked that deal after regulators argued it would eliminate a low-cost rival and push up fares. In 2021, the DOJ also sued to unwind the Northeast Alliance between American and JetBlue, arguing it reduced competition in New York and Boston.

Even mergers that did win approval came with strict conditions. American’s 2013 merger with US Airways required significant slot and gate divestitures at congested airports. United’s 2010 combination with Continental also required asset divestitures before regulators approved the deal.

Critics Warn of Disaster for Passengers

Consumer advocates responded to the merger report with sharp criticism. Ganesh Sitaraman, director of the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator, called a potential merger “an absolute disaster for the flying public.” Sitaraman also authored the book Why Flying Is Miserable. He warned that fewer choices would mean higher ticket prices and more fees for travelers.

Sitaraman stated: “Even the most permissive antitrust regulator should put their foot down at such a blatantly anticompetitive merger.” His remarks reflected widespread concern among consumer groups and competition advocates. The merger, if it proceeds, would reduce the so-called “big four” US carriers to a “big three.” Critics argue this reduction would severely damage competition across hundreds of domestic routes.

William McGee, a senior fellow for aviation and travel at the American Economic Liberties Project, offered an even more blunt assessment. He called the proposed deal “undoubtedly the most absurd airline merger” he had encountered in 41 years of working in and writing about the industry. McGee warned that a single US carrier controlling nearly 40% of the market crossed a line the industry had never approached before. He said: “We have never, ever, all throughout the history of the airline industry in this country” faced such a prospect.

Industry Watches for Trump Administration’s Next Move

The White House has not confirmed or denied that the merger discussion took place. It also remains unclear how President Trump personally responded to Kirby’s proposal during the meeting. A source close to the administration indicated skepticism existed within the White House regarding the plan. The aviation industry now watches closely to see whether the administration signals any openness to the concept.

Any formal merger proposal would still require Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust review by the Department of Justice. Even if the DOJ declined to block the deal, a wave of state lawsuits and private legal actions could follow immediately. The combination of regulatory, legal, and political obstacles makes a swift resolution unlikely. For now, the proposal remains an audacious idea that has rattled markets and alarmed consumer groups across the country.

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