Great Wealth Transfer Estimates Vary by $60 Trillion

The Great Wealth Transfer Debate Heats Up

A new estimate for the great wealth transfer has sparked a debate over how many trills of dollars will pass from baby boomers to their heirs. The projection reveals vast differences in how researchers calculate the coming generational shift in assets. Last week, Visa Business and Economic Insights released a new projection, estimating that $36 trillion in baby boomer wealth will be passed down to Gen X and millennials over the next 20 years. The figure represents a fraction of the widely cited estimate from Cerulli Associates, which says $105 trillion will pass from older generations to heirs by 2048.

The more than $60 trillion gap between the two studies has raised new questions about the size and impact of the great wealth transfer. Some analysts say it will be the largest in history, dramatically reshaping wealth management, charity and the global wealth landscape. Others contend its impact will be far more limited and simply marks a continuation of long-term inheritance trends. The dueling Visa and Cerulli numbers highlight just how important the estimates have become for wealth managers and other companies overhauling their businesses to prepare for the next generation of wealth.

Different Methodologies Produce Vastly Different Results

Visa, as a credit card payments company, focuses its study on the amount of inherited wealth that everyday American consumers will actually spend. Cerulli, being a financial research firm, focuses its study on the total wealth being transferred, including the outsized share of fortunes being passed down by the ultra wealthy. While Cerulli focuses on all wealth transfers in coming decades, Visa looked only at transfers from baby boomers. The methodological differences explain much of the dramatic divergence in projections.

“We wanted to go through and inspect how much money will actually be spent,” said Wayne Best, chief economist at Visa. “A lot of people think about the $93 trillion or $124 trillion and think ‘All that money’s going to be available for spending; this is going to be incredible.’ That’s why we went through the kind of the step-by-step process.”

Visa’s process started with the total amount of wealth held by today’s baby boomers, which it put at about $93 trillion. The report then stripped out liabilities and subtracted the wealth of the top 1%. Best explained that the top 1% approach money differently than typical consumers, making their wealth less relevant to a study focused on consumer spending patterns. This exclusion alone accounts for a massive portion of the difference between the two estimates.

Clients Show Mixed Readiness for Wealth Transfer

Advisors working on the great wealth transfer should expect to find extremely varied levels of preparation from their clients, according to the latest research from BNY Wealth. BNY Wealth’s 2026 “Wealth in Motion” study surveyed over 500 ultra-high net worth families with net assets of $10 million and above and offers another perspective on how the great wealth transfer will play out. The wealth management industry has expected this to be a sweeping event as assets pass from older generations, the research notes. However, the process has been slower and more complex than expected, largely as a result of longer lifespans, especially among UHNW individuals with better healthcare and nutrition.

“We’ve been talking about this Great Wealth Transfer, the silver tsunami, for a long time,” Alvina Lo, head of advice, planning and fiduciary services at BNY Wealth, told InvestmentNews. “I think the great wealth transfer is still happening, but the way people are thinking about the ‘when’ and the ‘how’ is shifting.”

Planning Intentions Outpace Actual Execution

BNY Wealth urges clients to be proactive and do the planning for a transfer as early as possible. Planning in advance means that the transfer can happen earlier, which proves far more tax advantageous, according to Lo. However, BNY Wealth’s study found that, in many cases, the planning remains unfinished. More than half of respondents (53%) acknowledged that their plans are not yet fully complete.

“We do see a disconnect between intention and execution,” said Lo, highlighting some of the reasons why the transfer of wealth is not being executed.

Only 20% of respondents said their heirs are very prepared to manage the wealth they receive. This lack of heir readiness represents one of the most significant barriers to executing planned wealth transfers. The study reveals that wealthy individuals possess the means to transfer wealth earlier but hesitate because they feel their heirs are not ready, despite the family’s wealth level.

Age Affects Perspectives on Heir Readiness

The report also found that older wealth owners have more concern that their heirs are not ready compared with those under that age threshold. Older wealth owners have a deeper appreciation for family dynamics and the challenges of wealth, according to Lo. Younger wealthy individuals might be thinking only about their heirs as a spouse or young children that they have yet to mold, but they don’t understand the reality of what managing intergenerational wealth truly entails. This generational difference in perspective shapes how and when families execute their transfer plans.

Implications for Wealth Management Industry

The divergent projections and implementation challenges create both opportunities and risks for wealth management firms. Firms must balance preparing for a potentially massive transfer of assets while recognizing that the timing and execution remain highly uncertain. The disconnect between planning intentions and execution suggests that advisors need to focus not just on technical estate planning but also on heir readiness and family dynamics. Wealth managers who understand these nuances can help clients address them proactively. These advisors will be better positioned to serve this market effectively in the coming decades.

The research indicates that the great wealth transfer will unfold more gradually than many industry observers anticipated. Longer lifespans, concerns about heir preparedness, and complex family dynamics all contribute to delays in executing planned transfers. The actual impact on consumer spending, investment patterns, and wealth management services may therefore emerge more slowly than the headline numbers suggest. Understanding these realities proves essential for financial professionals preparing to serve the next generation of wealthy clients.