World Bank Slashes Growth Forecasts for Portuguese-Speaking African Nations

Widespread Economic Downgrades Across Portuguese-Speaking Africa

The World Bank has revised downwards the economic growth forecasts for all Portuguese-speaking African countries, citing the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. The institution also cut its projection for the sub-Saharan Africa region as a whole by 0.3 percentage points, bringing it to 4%. The revisions appear in the Global Economic Prospects report published today in Washington, marking a significant shift in expectations for the region’s economic trajectory. These cuts affect every Portuguese-speaking nation on the continent, from the oil-rich economies to smaller island states, painting a challenging picture for the year ahead.

The forecasts show varying degrees of severity across different nations, with some countries facing marginal adjustments while others confront dramatic revisions. Angola now expects to grow by 2.4%, representing a reduction of 0.2 percentage points compared with the January forecast. Meanwhile, Cabo Verde saw its economic growth revised down by 0.4 points, from 5.2% to 4.8% this year. The institution attributes these adjustments to external pressures and regional challenges that continue to mount.

Equatorial Guinea Faces Return to Recession

The sharpest revision affects Equatorial Guinea, which economists now expect to return to recession, with its economy projected to contract by 3.5%. This represents a downward revision of 3.9 percentage points, marking the most severe adjustment among all Portuguese-speaking African nations. Guinea-Bissau now expects to grow by just 4.8%, down 0.4 points from the previous estimate of 5.2%. These dramatic changes underscore the vulnerability of smaller economies to external shocks and regional instability.

Mozambique, which fell into recession last year due to post-election violence at the end of 2024, faces particularly challenging conditions ahead. The World Bank expects the country to grow by only 0.9% after economists cut the forecast by 1.9 percentage points. São Tomé and Príncipe received a forecast of 2.9% growth, representing a reduction of 1.1 points compared with the January estimate of 4%. Political instability and its economic aftermath continue to weigh heavily on recovery prospects.

Regional Growth Trajectory Shows Modest Improvement Ahead

The World Bank expects regional growth of 4%, down from 4.3% previously forecast for the sub-Saharan African region. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy expects to accelerate slightly in 2027 and 2028 to 4.4% and 4.5% respectively, compared with 4.1% recorded last year. This gradual improvement offers some hope, though it remains contingent on stabilization of current conflict zones and successful policy implementation. The modest uptick suggests resilience in the region’s economic fundamentals despite near-term headwinds.

World Bank economists analyzing sub-Saharan Africa note that governments in the region have had more limited policy responses than those in other parts of the world. Preliminary data suggest the disinflation process may have stalled, with annual consumer inflation accelerating again in April. This acceleration persists despite government measures to protect vulnerable populations, including delays to planned subsidy reforms in Angola. The policy constraints reflect both fiscal limitations and structural challenges that continue to hamper effective economic management across the region.

Food Security Crisis Looms Over Agricultural Sector

The report predicts a likely increase in food insecurity, alongside lower agricultural incomes due to reduced fertiliser use, potentially resulting in food shortages from the second half of 2026 through 2027. This agricultural crisis threatens to compound existing economic challenges, creating a dual shock that could severely impact vulnerable populations. The combination of economic slowdown and food insecurity threatens to reverse years of development gains. This could increase vulnerability among already struggling populations who face mounting pressures from multiple fronts.

The conflict in the Middle East serves as a major factor affecting economic growth forecasts across the region. Current growth drivers, including structural reforms and recent trade agreements supporting investment and exports, continue to provide some momentum. The outlook assumes that the geopolitical environment stabilizes in the near term and that security improves across developing economies in the region. These assumptions remain critical to the forecast, as any deterioration in regional stability could trigger further downward revisions.

Oil Exporters Face Uncertain Short-Term Gains

Despite a short-term improvement expected for oil-exporting countries such as Angola, the World Bank warns that recent gains could quickly evaporate if conditions deteriorate. The institution emphasizes that policy responses must prove adequate to sustain momentum and protect vulnerable populations from economic shocks. Resource-dependent economies remain particularly exposed to commodity price fluctuations and global demand shifts that can rapidly alter growth trajectories.

The World Bank calls for African governments to adopt innovative approaches to economic management that can deliver results despite resource constraints. The institution highlights the need for diversification strategies that reduce dependence on single commodity exports. Structural reforms and improved governance emerge as critical priorities for building resilience against external shocks and creating sustainable growth pathways for Portuguese-speaking African nations moving forward.