Trump Approval Rating Falls to 38% Amid Rising Disapproval

National Approval Drops Sharply Across Battleground States

President Donald Trump faces mounting political challenges as new polling reveals 38 percent national approval. His disapproval stands at 58 percent among registered voters. The data comes from a Civiqs tracking poll of more than 105,000 registered voters. The president remains underwater in every major swing state. Sixteen months into his second term, Trump struggles to expand beyond his core base.

The president returned to office in January 2025 with strong Republican backing. However, support beyond his base remains limited. This dynamic continues to define his presidency. With midterms approaching, even small shifts in closely divided states could reshape congressional control. Voters in swing states will likely play decisive roles.

Deep divisions emerge along geographic and demographic lines. Wyoming shows the strongest net approval at 24 percent. West Virginia follows with 18 percent net approval. Both states remain strongholds of Trump support. Opposition has hardened in coastal blue states, where disapproval exceeds 70 percent in Hawaii and Maryland.

Economic Anxiety Drives Disapproval in Key States

Economic concerns fuel much of the president’s declining support. A new Vanderbilt University poll shows Trump’s approval in Tennessee has dropped 7 percentage points since November. The state now registers less than half approval. Rising prices at gas pumps and grocery stores worry voters across party lines. Nearly half of Tennessee residents express concern about affording food, rent, and gas.

Independent voters have moved sharply against the president. Trump’s approval with registered independents in Tennessee has fallen 10 percent over the past year. This erosion among swing voters signals potential trouble for Republican candidates in November. Presidential approval ratings historically predict midterm performance for the party in power.

Researchers point to voter frustration over pocketbook issues. Unemployment and inflation statistics may look acceptable on paper. Yet voters experience sticker shock at stores daily. They brace for uncertainty in both international and domestic arenas. Economic stress hits home for Americans regardless of income level.

MAGA Republicans Remain Fiercely Loyal Despite Overall Decline

Despite falling overall numbers, Trump’s core base shows remarkable solidarity. An overwhelming 94 percent of MAGA Republicans approve of his work. This represents the most solid presidential base in decades. This loyalty explains how Trump continues vanquishing Republican critics and imposing his will on Congress.

The president’s influence over GOP primaries remains formidable. Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie learned this lesson harshly on May 19. The seven-term congressman lost his Republican nomination in the most expensive House primary in history. Massie had crossed Trump on war, taxes, and the Jeffrey Epstein files. Trump recruited challenger Ed Gallrein, who secured victory.

Trump urged supporters on Truth Social to throw out the “Third Rate Congressman.” Republican voters in the Bluegrass State complied two days later. The defeat sent shockwaves through congressional Republicans. Those who defy Trump face involuntary retirement regardless of political experience.

Republican Casualties Mount Across Multiple States

In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger finished third in his gubernatorial primary bid. Trump opposed Raffensperger for defending the state’s 2020 election results. The secretary of state paid the price politically. Raffensperger and Massie join a growing list of defeated Republican officeholders.

Three days before Massie’s loss, another Trump target fell in Louisiana. Two-term Senator Bill Cassidy failed to make the Republican runoff. Representative Julia Letlow, who won Trump’s endorsement, led the primary field. State Treasurer John Fleming, who emphasized loyalty to the president, also advanced. This marked the first time since 2012 that a previously elected senator lost a primary.

The pattern extended to state legislatures. In Indiana, at least five of seven state senators lost nomination battles in May. They had defied Trump’s demands to redraw congressional maps. The president’s long memory and base loyalty combine to create political consequences.

Political Paradox Defines Trump’s Second Term

Trump faces a striking political contradiction. Millions of voters who elected him in 2024 now disapprove of his job performance. This represents a clear warning signal of political weakness. Yet his base remains unshaken and intensely devoted. This becomes a source of tremendous strength within Republican politics.

His aggregate approval has dropped below 40 percent for the first time in his second term. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report confirms this threshold crossing. This triggers red alerts for Republicans on November ballots. Presidential approval ratings reliably predict midterm election outcomes for the party in power.

The president can simultaneously appear politically vulnerable yet maintain iron control over his party. Base voters remain intensely loyal even as broader support erodes. This dynamic allows Trump to purge critics from Republican ranks. It also exposes his party to potential midterm losses.

Voters Prioritize Domestic Concerns Over Foreign Conflicts

Across party lines, Americans want national focus shifted homeward. They desire less engagement in international conflicts. Voters want leaders to address domestic problems first. Economic issues dominate voter concerns heading into midterm season.

Even some voters who approve of Trump believe the country tracks wrongly. National sentiment diverges from state-level attitudes in Republican strongholds. Tennessee voters view their state more favorably than the nation. Governor Bill Lee maintains 56 percent approval while Trump struggles below half.

Bipartisan concerns extend beyond economics. Voters express wariness about artificial intelligence in healthcare. Republicans show slightly more comfort than Democrats. An overwhelming portion oppose AI evaluating symptoms and developing treatment plans independently from doctors. This reflects broader anxiety about technological change.

Midterm Elections Loom Large for Republican Control

The approaching midterms will test Trump’s influence against his approval numbers. His ability to dominate primaries demonstrates base strength. However, general election voters include independents and moderates showing increasing disapproval. These swing voters typically decide close races in battleground districts.

Republican strategists face difficult calculations. Embracing Trump energizes the base but risks alienating broader electorates. Distancing from the president invites primary challenges from Trump-backed opponents. Congressional candidates must navigate this treacherous terrain over the coming months.

The political landscape remains narrow but critical. Tight margins in swing states will determine congressional control. Trump’s underwater approval in every major battleground state presents challenges. Yet his demonstrated ability to mobilize core supporters provides Republicans with hope. November’s results will reveal which force proves stronger.