Ameren Raises 2026 Guidance on Surging Data Center Demand, Charts $38.1 Billion Infrastructure Plan

Ameren has elevated its 2026 earnings guidance and unveiled a $38.1 billion infrastructure investment plan as the utility prepares for surging electricity demand across Missouri, with data centers driving much of the projected growth. The company raised its 2026 earnings forecast to $5.35 to $5.55 per share from $5.25 to $5.45, signaling confidence in its ability to capture revenue from large-scale industrial customers. Chairman and CEO Marty Lyons projected compound annual earnings-per-share growth of 8% to 10% from 2027 through 2031, with growth expected near the upper end of that range in 2028 and 2029 as large-customer sales ramp up.

The utility reported third-quarter earnings of $2.42 per diluted share, up from $2.35 on a generally accepted accounting principles basis a year earlier. Excluding a prior-year tax benefit, adjusted earnings reached $2.17 per share in the third quarter of 2025. Chief Financial Officer Lenny Singh attributed the increase to higher sales, favorable weather, and returns on infrastructure and energy technology investments, though those gains faced partial offset from elevated operations and maintenance costs in Missouri, particularly spending focused on reliability improvements.

Ameren also issued a 2027 forecast of $5.70 to $5.90 per share, positioning the $5.80 midpoint 8.4% above the midpoint of its original 2026 guidance. The company expects growth to accelerate in the coming years as major technology customers begin drawing power from the grid. Management’s optimism centers on the sheer volume of customer commitments already secured, with billions of dollars in associated infrastructure spending required to meet the demand.

Data Centers and Tech Giants Fuel Load Growth

Ameren’s five-year plan assumes Missouri electricity sales will expand at a 12.9% compound annual rate from 2027 through 2031, supported by 2.9 gigawatts of new load by 2031. The company has signed electric service agreements covering 2.8 gigawatts, with those customers expected to reach full capacity in 2030. Beyond the signed agreements, Ameren has 1.2 gigawatts of projects with construction agreements and another 4.4 gigawatts with completed interconnection studies, creating a robust pipeline of potential future revenue.

Lyons expressed optimism that additional service agreements could be signed in 2027, though he cautioned that he could not provide a definitive timeline for those deals. The CEO also warned that construction delays at customer sites could affect the timing of sales and earnings growth, underscoring the complexity of coordinating utility infrastructure buildouts with customer facility construction. He noted that the company had seen progress on projects already under construction, including developments tied to Google and Amazon.

Group President of Ameren Utilities Michael Moehn revealed that the Google and Amazon projects represent a combined planned investment of $25 billion and fall within the signed service agreements. These projects will create thousands of construction jobs and hundreds of longer-term jobs, Moehn said, highlighting the economic impact beyond electricity sales. The scale of these investments reflects the massive infrastructure requirements of modern data centers, which demand reliable, high-capacity power connections and often negotiate long-term utility commitments before breaking ground.

Algonquin Reports Higher Earnings, Advances Missouri Large-Load Tariff

Algonquin Power & Utilities reported higher adjusted earnings for the third quarter of 2026, supported by favorable weather and new utility rates, and reaffirmed its earnings outlook for this year and next. Adjusted net earnings rose to $88.1 million from $69 million a year earlier, while adjusted net earnings per share increased to $0.11 from $0.09, Chief Financial Officer Rob Stefani said. GAAP earnings attributable to common shareholders fell to $57.6 million from $71 million.

Stefani said favorable weather at Empire Electric contributed $20.4 million to the quarterly improvement, while new rates added about $11.4 million, primarily at CalPeco and Empire Electric. The rate benefit faced partial offset from wildfire insurance costs and lower gas system enhancement program revenue at New England Gas. Higher operating expenses for gas safety, labor, and maintenance reduced the year-over-year improvement by $4.4 million, while results also absorbed a $7.1 million comparison impact from a favorable one-time EnergyNorth depreciation deferral recorded in the prior year.

Algonquin Reaffirms Guidance, Advances Regulatory Strategy

Algonquin reaffirmed its adjusted net earnings guidance of $0.35 to $0.37 per share for 2026 and $0.38 to $0.42 for 2027, with Stefani stating the company continues to expect it will not need to issue equity through 2027 to fund its current plans. The company reported $1.2 billion in liquidity and a BBB credit rating. Stefani said funds from operations as a percentage of debt reached 12.2% over the last 12 months, and management continues to monitor its headroom to a potential downgrade.

Chief Executive Officer Rod West said Empire Electric Missouri filed a proposed large-load tariff intended to help serve potential new customers while requiring them to pay their representative cost of service. He described commission approval of the tariff as the first public milestone before the company can proceed with customer negotiations and infrastructure investments. The tariff structure aims to ensure that existing customers do not subsidize the incremental costs of serving large industrial and data center loads, a critical regulatory consideration as utilities nationwide grapple with unprecedented demand from technology companies.

Ares Commercial Real Estate Resolves Defaulted Loan, Continues Office Exit

Ares Commercial Real Estate reported third-quarter 2026 net income of $10 million and announced it had resolved its only defaulted loan after the quarter ended, as management continued to work through underperforming real estate investments. The commercial real estate lender reported net income of $0.18 per diluted common share, with distributable earnings reaching $6.7 million, or $0.12 per share. Excluding a realized gain from the sale of an office property, distributable earnings totaled $6.4 million, or $0.11 per share.

During the third quarter, Ares sold an office property in Charlotte, North Carolina, for net proceeds approximately $7 million above its carrying value after acquiring title to the property in 2024. After the quarter ended, a $28 million industrial loan in Newark, New Jersey, that had been in maturity default was fully repaid, including accrued default interest. CEO Bryan Donohoe described the default as more technical than indicative of distressed value, and CFO Jeffrey Gonzales confirmed it had been the company’s only defaulted loan.

At quarter-end, office loans and office REO investments totaled $444 million, down 10% from the prior quarter and 19% from a year earlier, with seven office loans remaining in the portfolio. Ares has begun the process of acquiring title to a Chicago office property backing a risk-rated five loan, with Donohoe stating that taking title would give the company more control over the sale process and its timing. The property was more than 90% occupied, with a weighted average lease term exceeding seven years, and management does not expect a significant capital expenditure cycle at the property.