College Football Playoff Projections: Indiana vs Miami National Championship Emerges After Week 7 Chaos

The wildest weekend of the college football season delivered nonstop drama from noon through the final snap out West, sending shockwaves through the College Football Playoff projections heading into Week 8. Three top-ranked teams fell in stunning upsets that reshuffled the entire postseason picture, creating a completely new bracket scenario with at-large spots getting increasingly tight across the Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC conferences.

Texas, ranked No. 1 and unbeaten just two weeks ago, now faces a murky CFP path following Saturday’s loss to Florida. The chaos continued when top-ranked Georgia fell victim to an upset at the hands of Auburn, while Alabama lost at Tennessee, three stunning results that dramatically altered the bracket projections. The carnage left analysts scrambling to recalculate which teams still hold realistic championship hopes with only 12 playoff spots available despite expansion plans looming on the horizon.

Sports Illustrated’s latest bowl projections feature fascinating CFP matchups throughout the bracket, from first-round battles all the way through to a potential rematch of last year’s national championship game in Las Vegas. Texas Tech‘s Joey McGuire gets his much-anticipated game against Notre Dame in one projected first-round clash, while the bracket includes possibilities ranging from Bill Belichick potentially getting drenched in mayo against Penn State to another West Coast meeting between USC and Texas in Vegas, plus an old Big Eight reunion in the Liberty Bowl.

BYU Rises to Top Spot in New CFP Rankings

The projected College Football Playoff rankings after Week 7 place BYU at No. 1, followed by Georgia at second despite their shocking loss. Indiana climbs to the No. 3 position, while Miami sits at fourth and UCLA rounds out the top five. Mississippi claims the sixth spot, with Ohio State at seventh and Notre Dame holding eighth. The final four playoff positions go to Texas Tech at ninth, Kentucky at tenth, Iowa at eleventh, and Boise State rounding out the bracket at twelfth.

The first-round matchups shape up with compelling conference and regional storylines. No. 12 Boise State travels to face No. 5 UCLA, while No. 11 Iowa heads to No. 6 Mississippi. No. 10 Kentucky faces No. 7 Ohio State, and No. 9 Texas Tech battles No. 8 Notre Dame in what promises to be one of the most anticipated first-round clashes. These opening games would determine which teams advance to the prestigious New Year’s Six bowl venues for the quarterfinal round.

Projected Championship Path Features Powerhouse Matchups

The quarterfinal projections place No. 1 BYU against No. 8 Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, while the Peach Bowl would feature No. 2 Georgia versus No. 7 Ohio State. The Rose Bowl projects as a clash between No. 3 Indiana and No. 6 Mississippi, while the Cotton Bowl would pit No. 4 Miami against No. 5 UCLA in a marquee West Coast versus East Coast battle.

The semifinal round projects with No. 2 Georgia facing No. 3 Indiana in the Orange Bowl, while No. 8 Notre Dame would meet No. 4 Miami in the Sugar Bowl. These matchups would determine which two teams advance to the national championship game scheduled for Las Vegas, where the projections currently show No. 3 Indiana versus No. 4 Miami battling for the title, a potential rematch of last year’s championship clash.

SEC Chaos Creates Unprecedented Tiebreaker Nightmare

For the first time in the CFP era, analysts expect at least two-perhaps several-three-loss SEC teams in the bracket this season as chaos continued within the conference during Week 7. No wonder the SEC finally jumped on board for a 24-team College Football Playoff, which may arrive as soon as the 2027 season, given the unprecedented parity creating havoc with selection scenarios. The conference faces a potential tiebreaker nightmare that could leave several traditional powers on the outside looking in despite impressive résumés.

The projected final SEC records paint a picture of unprecedented competitive balance across the conference. Georgia projects at 10-2, tied with Tennessee and Ole Miss at the same mark. Alabama, Kentucky, LSU, Texas, and Florida all project at 9-3, while Missouri sits at 8-4. Determining the league tiebreaker on who faces Georgia in the SEC Championship Game-the last of its kind if the move to a 24-team playoff happens next fall-promises to be extraordinarily complex with multiple teams holding legitimate claims.

“Good luck determining the league tiebreaker on who gets to play Georgia in the SEC Championship Game,” analysts noted, adding that “there’s going to be a handful of SEC teams crying at the selection committee for not getting in this season, but there aren’t enough spots to keep everyone who answers to Greg Sankey happy.”

Group of Five and Bowl Season Take Shape

Beyond the playoff picture, the rest of the postseason features equally compelling matchups across the bowl landscape. The Salute to Veterans Bowl on December 15 projects Buffalo versus Louisiana, while the Frisco Football Classic the same day could feature Texas State versus USF in an easy 250-mile trek for the Bobcats, who crossed the 60-point plateau for the second time this season during Thursday’s 66-27 victory over Colorado State. USF would prefer playing in the Gasparilla Bowl despite recent attendance issues at Raymond James Stadium, especially with next season expected to bring the opening of their new 35,000-seat on-campus venue.

The Boca Raton Bowl on December 18 projects Western Michigan against Appalachian State, with the Mountaineers having erased a 10-point deficit to spoil Coastal Carolina’s “90s Night” on Friday. The victory pushed Appalachian State to 1-1 in the Sun Belt ahead of Thursday night’s showdown against unbeaten JMU, with the 7-0 Dukes potentially ranked when they travel to Boone for one of the Group of Six’s most important remaining games this season. The Gasparilla Bowl the same day could feature Virginia versus Texas A&M in Tampa.

Additional bowl projections include the Myrtle Beach Bowl and Potato Bowl on December 21, followed by the Puerto Rico Bowl and Cure Bowl on December 22. The postseason slate reflects the incredible depth across college football this season, with competitive matchups projected throughout every tier of bowl games as teams fight for spots in what promises to be one of the most unpredictable postseasons in recent memory before the potential expansion to 24 teams reshapes the landscape entirely.